Zhongzhi shares (600038) 2019 first quarter report review: steady revenue growth, good order situation
Core View Company’s 2019Q1 Revenue23.
870,000 yuan, an increase of 11 in ten years.
5%, the performance is in line with expectations, and subsequent new models are expected to be delivered in batches.
We maintain the company’s EPS forecast for 2019/20/21 to 1.
Taking into account the company’s industry category and the performance flexibility brought about by the future batch production of new models, we maintain a “Buy” rating with a target price of 55 yuan.
Revenue growth is solid and orders are in good condition.
The company achieved revenue of 23 in 2019Q1.
8.7 billion (eleven + 11.
5%), net profit attributable to mother 0.
790,000 yuan (ten years +11.
5%) to achieve EPS 0.
In the total number of reports, the company’s gross profit margin decreased by 1 due to rising costs of raw materials and accessories.
At 12 pcts, the expense ratio decreased during the period, and the growth rate of net profit attributable to mothers was the same as that of income.
Advance payments increase by 38 per year.
9%, the contract debt in this period increased by 44% compared to the first quarter of 2018, the company’s advance receipt of advance payments may indicate that the company ‘s order advancement is good, production tasks are full, and procurement and stocking increase.
The batch delivery of new models in the future is expected to bring breakthrough performance flexibility.
In Q1 2019, the Harbin branch of the company (straight 9, straight 19, Y12, EC120, etc.) achieved revenue 44.
9 ‰, a 31% increase over ten years, and a profit increase of 1.
US $ 2.2 billion, a year-on-year growth of 67%. We expect the single model value and gross profit margin of the new model to be relatively high. The increase in net profit of the Harbin branch may indicate that the new model has begun small-scale delivery.
Along with the upgrade of our military equipment and the expansion of the Army Air Force, it is expected that armed helicopters will remain the focus of development in the next 3-5 years. The company’s existing straight -8, straight -9, and straight -11 is stable above the market and is expected toMaintain steady growth.
We estimate that the demand gap of the Zhi-20 is about 1,000. If the Zhi-20 is to be mass-produced in the future, it will bring breakthrough elasticity to the company.
The potential of the general aviation market is expected to fully benefit the company.
At present, the number of general aircraft is less than 3,000, and helicopters account for about 32 in general aircraft.
5%, if this ratio is maintained, by 2020, the number of Chinese helicopters 重庆耍耍网 will exceed 1,630.
According to incomplete statistics, in the long term, nearly 1,000 general aviation airports are being gradually classified and classified, providing a hardware foundation for the development of general aviation.
The company has AC311, AC312, AC352, Yun 12 and other star universal aircraft models, and has the ability to customize, and is expected to benefit from the huge market space brought by the development of navigation.
The reform of the group has been advanced initially, and the injection of helicopter assembly assets is worth looking forward to.
The holding and management rights of Zhongzhi Co., Ltd. are in AVIC Technology and Helicopter Company, and AVIC Group’s compression serial port level, “focus on the main business, slimming down”. The group’s merger helicopter segment is expected to 南京夜网论坛 be reformed.
As the Aviation Industry Group became a pilot project of a state-owned capital investment company, its subsidiaries were restructured, and capital operations progressed faster. As a listed platform of the subsidiary helicopter group of the group, the company will develop and integrate military helicopter assembly assets under the group in the future, which will increase the company’s performance and enhance core competition.Lili.
Risk factors: The demand for military helicopters does not fully manifest in the short term; the growth rate of military expenditures drops rapidly and significantly; major problems in the use of the model cause procurement to be suspended and suspended; the delivery of the model is delayed; the uncertainty of asset operation, etc.
Investment suggestion: Considering that the company’s order situation is good and the production tasks are full, we maintain the company’s EPS forecast for 2019/20/21 to 1.
32 yuan.The current price is 42.
74 yuan, corresponding to 42/35/32 times PE for 2019/20/21.
Considering the company’s industry category and the performance flexibility brought about by the future batch production of new models, we maintain the “Buy” rating with a target price of 55 yuan (corresponding to 2 times the PS estimate in 2019).